Freight Forecast for the second half of 2025

The transportation industry exited 2025 fundamentally reshaped. What began as a prolonged freight recession evolved into a structural reset driven by sustained margin pressure, tightening capital, regulatory complexity, and heightened scrutiny of compliance and operating discipline. Bankruptcies rose sharply, voluntary closures accelerated, and consolidation activity reached levels not seen since prior downcycles. For Transportation Tax Consulting (TTC) and its clients, 2025 reinforced a central truth: financial survival and transaction success increasingly depend on tax strategy, compliance execution, and operational visibility—not just freight volumes. Bankruptcies Accelerated as Structural Costs Outpaced Revenue Carrier bankruptcies climbed again in 2025 after already elevated filings in 2023 and 2024. Industry estimates and court filings indicate that U.S. trucking bankruptcies in 2025 increased by more than 35% year over year , driven primarily by small and mid-sized fleets. Key drivers included: Spot market exposure: Spot rates remained 20–30% below 2021 peaks for much of the year Insurance inflation: Premiums rose another 10–15% for many carriers Equipment replacement pressure: Emissions-compliant equipment increased capital requirements Tax and compliance exposure: Multistate fuel tax, sales/use tax, and employment classification issues surfaced during audits and distressed transactions The bankruptcy trend chart above illustrates the steady rise in carrier failures since 2021, culminating in 2025 as financially weakened operators ran out of options. From TTC’s perspective, many bankruptcies revealed unaddressed tax liabilities —including unpaid fuel taxes, misapplied sales tax exemptions, and unremitted payroll taxes—that significantly reduced recovery value and complicated restructurings. Closures Reflected Strategic Exits, Not Just Failure Beyond formal bankruptcies, thousands of carriers voluntarily exited the market in 2025. Owner-operators and family-owned fleets increasingly chose to shut down operations rather than refinance debt, absorb compliance costs, or invest in new technology. Common closure drivers included: Aging ownership with no succession plan Rising administrative burden tied to tax filings, registrations, and audits Difficulty maintaining compliance across multiple jurisdictions Limited access to affordable insurance and credit Brokerages and small logistics providers also closed quietly as digital platforms and large intermediaries consolidated shipper relationships. For TTC clients, these closures often triggered unexpected exposure , including: Orphaned fuel tax accounts Unresolved audit notices Asset disposition sales tax issues Nexus questions following market exits Closures reinforced the importance of exit planning , even for companies not pursuing bankruptcy or sale. Mergers Increased as Scale Became a Risk-Management Tool Mergers gained momentum in 2025 as carriers sought density, efficiency, and purchasing power. Unlike prior cycles focused on rapid geographic expansion, most mergers emphasized: Terminal consolidation Lane density optimization Overhead reduction Back-office centralization Private equity-backed platforms led much of this activity, targeting compliance-ready operators with clean tax profiles and documented processes. The M&A activity chart above illustrates the steady increase in transportation transactions through 2025, reflecting both defensive and opportunistic consolidation. TTC observed a clear trend: buyers increasingly demanded tax diligence early in the process . Transactions stalled—or valuations adjusted—when targets lacked clean fuel tax filings, sales tax documentation, or employment tax compliance. Acquisitions Became More Disciplined and Asset-Focused Acquisitions in 2025 shifted toward selective, strategic deals rather than full-platform rollups. Buyers focused on: Asset purchases out of bankruptcy Specialized fleets (temperature-controlled, bulk, dedicated) Contract-heavy operators with predictable revenue Asset-only acquisitions allowed buyers to avoid assuming historical tax and compliance liabilities, a strategy TTC frequently supported through transaction structuring and liability isolation . Technology-driven acquisitions also expanded, particularly in logistics software and compliance automation. These deals aimed to reduce long-term administrative risk while improving reporting accuracy. Shipper Behavior Accelerated Consolidation Pressure Shippers played a direct role in reshaping the market. In 2025: Large shippers reduced carrier counts by an estimated 15–25% Contract rebids emphasized compliance, reporting, and audit readiness Dedicated and hybrid fleet models gained share Carriers unable to demonstrate fuel tax accuracy, emissions compliance, and regulatory consistency increasingly lost freight—even when rates were competitive. For TTC, this trend underscored the growing link between tax compliance and revenue retention . Regulatory and Tax Complexity Influenced Winners and Losers Regulatory pressure intensified throughout 2025. State revenue agencies increased audit activity, particularly around: Fuel tax reporting Sales and use tax on equipment, parts, and leases Worker classification and payroll tax compliance Carriers entering mergers, acquisitions, or restructurings faced heightened scrutiny of historical filings. TTC frequently supported clients by: Quantifying historical exposure Resolving legacy liabilities pre-transaction Structuring deals to mitigate successor liability Supporting post-merger integration of tax processes Companies that invested in compliance infrastructure earlier in the cycle emerged as preferred acquisition targets . Workforce Disruption and Realignment Industry restructuring displaced thousands of drivers and staff. While consolidation absorbed some talent, uncertainty persisted in regions heavily affected by closures. However, acquiring firms that executed clean integrations —including payroll tax alignment and benefit compliance—retained talent more effectively and avoided post-close disruptions. TTC Perspective: 2025 Was a Compliance Wake-Up Call From Transportation Tax Consulting’s vantage point, 2025 clearly demonstrated that: Tax exposure materially impacts valuation Compliance failures accelerate distress Clean filings enable faster, more favorable transactions Proactive advisory reduces downside risk Bankruptcies, mergers, acquisitions, and closures were not isolated financial events—they were compliance stress tests . Looking Ahead: Discipline Defines the Next Cycle The transportation industry enters 2026 leaner, more consolidated, and more disciplined. Capacity rationalization improved long-term fundamentals, but success will favor companies that: Maintain strong compliance frameworks Integrate tax strategy into growth planning Prepare early for transactions and exits Treat tax and regulatory management as strategic assets  The turbulence of 2025 cleared excess capacity—but it also elevated the role of advisors who understand transportation’s unique tax and compliance landscape.